Did
you think back in 1998 that three
years later you would never take pictures on film again? In 1998 Kodak had
170,000 employees and sold 85% photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years
their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak
will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years and, most people won't
see it coming.
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen again with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.
Welcome to the Exponential Age...
Software
will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10
years
Uber
is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi
company in the world.
Airbnb
is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any
properties.
Artificial
Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world.
This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier
than expected.
In
the US , young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM's Watson you can
get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds. With 90%
accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans So if you study law,
stop immediately. There
will be 90% less lawyers in the future. Only
specialists will remain.
Watson
already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, which is four times more accurate than
human nurses.
Facebook
now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than
humans. In 2030 computers will become more intelligent than humans. (NEVER says
Albert)
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020 the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You won't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while being driven.
Our
kids will never need to get a driver's license and will never own a
car
It
will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can
transform former parking spaces into parks.
1.2
million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one
accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop
to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million
lives each year.
Most
car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the
evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies like
Tesla, Apple, Google will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on
wheels.
Many
engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of
Tesla.
Insurance
companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance
will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will
disappear.
Real
Estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move
further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Electric
cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all
new cars will run on electricity.
Electricity
will become incredibly cheap and clean. Solar production has been on an
exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning
impact.
Last
year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies
are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from
home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that
strategy.
With
cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now
only needs 2k Wh per cubic meter at 0.25 cents. We don't have scarce water in
most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible
if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no
cost.
Health:
The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will
build a medical device (called the " Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with
your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you simply
breath into it.
It
then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be
cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class
medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye medical
establishments.
3 D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.
Some
spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space
station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare
parts they used to have in the past.
At
the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You
can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at
home.
In
China they have already 3D printed and built a complete 6 story office building.
By 2027 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D
printed
Business Opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, first ask yourself, "In the future, do I think we will have that?" If the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80 % of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a short time. This will require a rethink on wealth distribution.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields
Aeroponics: Will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.
EXCITING times huh?
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